I think it's hard to really wrap your head around how many macro-issues are present when you really get into the upper-echelons of management and decision making. True visionaries who enact real changes in people's lifestyles and who give birth to and kill entire industries are the unknowns at the helm of major (or currently minor, soon to be major) organizations around the world.
Longtime Intel leader Craig Barrett is retiring as the company's chairman, and an article in BusinessWeek that chronicles his legacy gives a very interesting look at how the PC industry has evolved, and the role that Intel played.
What jumped out at me was the statement that the PC industry is "relatively mature." Besides the initial shock that an entire life-altering technological sector can be created, grow, and mature between grade school and my early twenties, this is an important statement about the need to be constantly aware of the environment in which you are operating.
Another interesting point to note is the whole netbook phenomenon. Netbooks are stripped down laptops that can basically only run the internet. They are extremely popular and cheaper than a regular laptop, but have very thin margins for manufacturers and sellers. So this is just a reminder that just because something will sell like hotcakes doesn't mean you should make it. The netbook can ravage the industry. Afterall, if you buy a netbook, you don't need to buy a nicer, bigger, more equipped (and more profitable for the seller) laptop or desktop computer. Sometimes introductions like this are lose-lose (for manufacturers...consumers probably do alright).
A little more about strategy in a downturn from a related article:
The PC makers that stand to do best include Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Acer, and Apple (AAPL). HP has a well-balanced portfolio of products. Acer operates with a super-lean Taiwanese cost structure that allows it to price its products aggressively. Apple seems content to stick with making ever-more-powerful PCs for premium prices.
But will marketing high-powered computers featuring slick industrial design still work in the bust? That's debatable. Market researcher NPD Group says sales of Macintosh computers declined 1% in November, which could be a harbinger of trouble.
Companies have to know who they are, what they are best at, what their core competency is, and stick to it, grow it, live it. (Until it's not working anymore...then feverishly work to change it).
Steve Hamm. "Recession Comes to the PC Makers." BusinessWeek. January 15, 2009. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_04/b4117082616113.htm.
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